The adequacy of electricity in the coming winter looks good
Fingrid has prepared an estimate of the adequacy of electricity in the coming winter. The uncertainties of last winter have passed, and the outlook for the adequacy of electricity is now stable. Reducing electricity consumption – especially when prices on the power market are high – will still be important for the adequacy of electricity.
Fingrid estimates that the adequacy of electricity will be good in the coming winter, with a low risk of electricity shortages. The outlook is better than last winter, as there is now more Finnish electricity production and the availability of imports from neighbouring countries has improved.
“Last winter, a significant reduction in electricity consumption at peak times also helped to ensure the adequacy of electricity. It will still be important for electricity users to take responsible action like this,” says Tuomas Rauhala, Senior Vice President, Power System Operations at Fingrid.
Fingrid estimates that electricity consumption could peak at 14,300 megawatts on a very cold and calm winter’s day. At best, Finnish production can cover an estimated 12,800 megawatts of consumption on such a cold day. The remaining 1,500 megawatts can be imported from Sweden and Estonia.
The adequacy of electricity could be weakened during consumption peaks if simultaneous disturbances arise in important production plants or electricity transmission connections. The availability of production plants and transmission connections is typically good during the winter, as outages for maintenance and construction are primarily scheduled at other times of the year.
Image: Estimate of Finland’s power balance in 2023–2024 on a very calm and cold winter’s day.
The electricity consumption peak on a very cold and calm winter’s day is estimated at 14,300 MW, which is 100 MW lower than last winter’s estimate. The estimate is based on realised figures in recent years, taking into account the effect of demand-side management. Electricity consumption has remained moderate following the challenging period last autumn and winter. Reducing electricity consumption is important, especially when supply is scarce, which typically means the electricity price is also high.
The capacity available from Finnish production plants is estimated at 12,800 MW. The most significant changes since last winter are the start-up of regular electricity production at Olkiluoto 3 and the addition of new wind power capacity. On a calm, cold day, wind power is estimated to produce electricity at about 6% of its rated capacity. The electricity import capacity has remained unchanged, and peak load reserves will not be available this winter. Fingrid will continue with its voluntary power system support procedure until spring 2024.
Fingrid will update its estimate of the adequacy of electricity in the coming winter if necessary.
Tuomas Rauhala, Senior Vice President, Fingrid Oyj, tel. +358 40 506 4695
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