Fingrid has updated its estimate of the adequacy of electricity in the coming winter: electricity consumption has decreased – energy-saving measures must continue
Fingrid has updated its estimate of the adequacy of electricity in the coming winter, as electricity consumption decreased by an average of seven per cent in September compared with the previous year. Consequently, the estimate of peak consumption in the winter has been updated. In other regards, the situation is largely unchanged.
The energy market remains in an extraordinary state because of the uncertainties around the availability of electricity due to war on European soil. People in Finland are advised to prepare for power outages caused by possible electricity shortages this coming winter.
The new estimate of the electricity consumption peak in the coming winter is 14,400 megawatts, which is 700 megawatts less than the original estimate. Above all, the consumption peak was updated because electricity consumption decreased by approximately seven per cent in September compared with the corresponding period in 2021. In the best case, domestic production can cover an estimated 12,900 megawatts, including the Olkiluoto 3 nuclear power plant, as well as the Meri-Pori production plant, as well as the estimated wind power output during calm weather. The Olkiluoto 3 nuclear power plant would compensate for the lack of imports from Russia.
The EU is also setting the target of reducing the consumption peak by five per cent.
Figure: Estimate of electricity production and consumption for the winter season 2022–2023 in a situation where the electricity system and market function without problems.
“We have now achieved a seven-per-cent saving in electricity consumption, which is a really good start. However, winter and freezing temperatures are yet to come. In the coming winter, efforts to save electricity and schedule the consumption of electricity may be the key to avoiding electricity shortages. For example, a saving of approximately 10 per cent during times of peak consumption would be almost as much as the output of Olkiluoto 3,” says Tuomas Rauhala, Fingrid’s Senior Vice President, Power System Operation.
Fingrid will update its estimate of the adequacy of electricity for the coming winter as the situation changes.
Tuomas Rauhala, Senior Vice President, Fingrid Oyj, tel. +358 40 506 4695
Previous press releases on the power balance in the winter:
Information about electricity shortages and how they are handled: https://www.fingrid.fi/en/grid/information-regarding-electricity-shortages/
Fact box: Key factors affecting the adequacy of electricity
- In the coming winter, the weather will have a major impact on peak consumption and the availability of electricity from wind turbines. The actual peak consumption is lower if the weather is mild, and wind power output is higher in times of windy weather.
- Generating capacity of important power plants. Generating capacity may be affected by failures or a delay in the commissioning of the Olkiluoto 3 nuclear power plant, as well as problems in the availability of power plant fuels, especially natural gas.
- The reliability of transmission connections to ensure import capacity. The availability of imports may also be affected by internal problems with the adequacy of electricity in the exporting countries.