Prospects for future electricity production and consumption updated – Fingrid prepares for substantial growth during the ongoing decade

Fingrid has updated the forecasts for electricity production and consumption used in the main grid planning. The big picture of the forecasts remains unchanged: Finland’s prospects for success in the energy transition are extremely promising. Fingrid has continued to receive connection inquiries from electricity producers and energy-intensive industries. Enabling investments necessitates significant development and construction of the national grid.

Fingrid prepares for a substantial growth in electricity production and consumption, amounting to approximately 50 terawatt hours by 2030. The majority of the growth is projected to take place at the end of the decade. In addition to electrification of the society, the export of electricity-intensive industrial products is a major growth driver. Therefore, Finland’s competitiveness for electricity-intensive industrial investments is crucial.

“Clean, affordable and reliable electricity is a key competitive advantage for Finland. The majority of new electricity production is based on wind and solar power, and especially onshore wind power. The increase in variable generation emphasizes the need to cost-efficiently increase demand response, energy storage, adjustable generation, and cross-border capacities”, says Mikko Heikkilä, Head of Strategic Grid Planning at Fingrid.

The connection enquiries from electricity producers and energy-intensive industries have continued to grow. There are over 25 gigawatts of projects related to energy-intensive industries. Meanwhile, the amount of wind and solar power projects stands at approximately 350 gigawatts. Naturally, there are uncertainties related to project schedules and implementation. On the other hand, the investment boom in electric boilers for district heating and industrial steam production over the past year demonstrates that investments are progressing when commercial conditions are favorable. Additionally, electricity consumption growth in Finland is not solely dependent on one sector; there are growth prospects for energy-intensive industries across various sectors, including hydrogen and electric fuel production, data centers, as well as steel and battery manufacturing.

Achieving Finland's climate goals and enabling clean transition investment projects that create economic prosperity in Finland require significant main grid construction and development.

“According to our preliminary estimate, Fingrid's current main grid investment program of approximately four billion euros will, if realized, enable the kind of development described in the forecast, though especially the geographical location of production and consumption projects creates some uncertainty in this regard. It is also important that opportunities to develop the main grid are maintained in the future. Smooth permitting and predictable regulation that enables grid investments play a key role in this”, Heikkilä emphasizes.

For further information contact:

Mikko Heikkilä, Head of Strategic Grid Planning, Fingrid Oyj, tel. +358 30 395 5113
Risto Kuusi, Senior Expert, Fingrid Oyj, tel. +358 30 395 4122
E-mail addresses are in the form firstname.lastname(at)fingrid.fi

Link to report attached

Link to key parameters in excel format attached