Prospects for future electricity production and consumption Q1 2024

The big picture of the forecasts for electricity production and consumption used in the main grid planning remains unchanged: Finland’s prospects for success in the energy transition are extremely promising. Fingrid has continued to receive connection inquiries from electricity producers and energy-intensive industries. Enabling investments necessitates significant development and construction of the national grid.

Reliable electricity networks are one of the most important national competitiveness factors for industrial projects requiring clean energy. Therefore, the long-term planning of the main grid must be prepared for the realisation of even high electricity consumption and production potentials. Fingrid prepares for a substantial growth in electricity production and consumption, amounting to approximately 50 terawatt hours by 2030. The forecasts reflect the baseline scenario used in main grid planning, and their realisation involves several uncertainties. Uncertainties may affect the implementation schedules of production and consumption projects and, in general, the speed and direction of change.

Clean, affordable and reliable electricity is a key competitive advantage for Finland. The majority of new electricity production is based on wind and solar power, and especially onshore wind power. The increase in variable generation emphasizes the need to cost-efficiently increase demand response, energy storage, adjustable generation, and cross-border capacities.

The forecast is based on connection enquiries received by Fingrid for production and consumption and on the results of electricity market modelling. The forecast takes into account the growing need for clean electricity and products produced from electricity in Europe, as well as Finland's excellent potential to be a competitive producer of these products. The forecast has been created so that it is challenging in terms of main grid planning and the electricity system, but nevertheless realistic. The forecast guides Fingrid to proactively solve challenges related to the transition of the electricity system and to find solutions with which the company can contribute to enabling investments related to clean electricity located in Finland.

The report and the prospects data attached.