Page 1 Created with Sketch. Page 1 Created with Sketch. Page 1 Created with Sketch. Page 1 Created with Sketch. Artboard 1 copy 14Artboard 1 copy 7Artboard 1 copy 66Artboard 1 copy 23Artboard 1 copy 16Artboard 1 copy 55Artboard 1 copy 43Artboard 1 copy 50Artboard 1 copy 54Artboard 1 copy 34Artboard 1 copy 51Artboard 1 copy 36Artboard 1 copy 35Artboard 1 copy 46Artboard 1 copyArtboard 1 copy 31Artboard 1 copy 48Artboard 1 copy 9Artboard 1 copy 27Artboard 1 copy 8Artboard 1 copy 20Artboard 1 copy 2Artboard 1 copy 24Artboard 1 copy 62Artboard 1 copy 30Artboard 1 copy 41Artboard 1 copy 28Artboard 1 copy 26Artboard 1 copy 67Artboard 1 copy 52Artboard 1 copy 33Artboard 1 copy 29Artboard 1 copy 19Artboard 1 copy 53Artboard 1 copy 22Artboard 1 copy 21Artboard 1 copy 12Artboard 1 copy 13Artboard 1 copy 47Artboard 1 copy 49Artboard 1 copy 57Artboard 1 copy 32Artboard 1 copy 4Artboard 1 copy 25Artboard 1 copy 10Artboard 1 copy 15Artboard 1Artboard 1 copy 56Artboard 1 copy 11Artboard 1 copy 38Artboard 1 copy 65Artboard 1 copy 39Artboard 1 copy 5Artboard 1 copy 58Artboard 1 copy 6Artboard 1 copy 17Artboard 1 copy 40Artboard 1 copy 60Artboard 1 copy 3Artboard 1 copy 45Artboard 1 copy 18Artboard 1 copy 42Artboard 1 copy 61Artboard 1 copy 63Artboard 1 copy 64Artboard 1 copy 59Artboard 1 copy 44Artboard 1 copy 37 Combined Shape Created with Sketch. icon/info Created with Sketch. icon/info Created with Sketch. Group 17 Created with Sketch. Fill 1 Created with Sketch. Page 1 Created with Sketch. 99021DFE-DB58-4EE2-9D52-C2BF154A8B0A Created with sketchtool. Oval 2 Created with Sketch. Combined Shape Created with Sketch. Combined Shape Copy Created with Sketch. Group 18 Created with Sketch. Group 16 Created with Sketch. Page 1 Created with Sketch. ; ;
  • Home /
  • News /
  • Current news /
  • ENTSO-E: Uncertainties surrounding the adequacy of electricity in Europe this winter
« Back to search
7.12.2022 08:54
Current News, Press Releases, Electricity Market

ENTSO-E: Uncertainties surrounding the adequacy of electricity in Europe this winter

On 1 December, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) published a report on the adequacy of electricity in Europe in the coming winter. The report points to several risks related to the adequacy of electricity in the Nordic countries and elsewhere in Europe.

ENTSO-E’s Winter Outlook 2022–2023 shows risks related to the adequacy of electricity in Finland, Southern Sweden and Denmark. Risks were also identified elsewhere in Europe, especially in France and Ireland. There will be plenty of electricity in the Nordic countries for most of the winter, but the report also points to certain events that could impair the adequacy of electricity. For example, major faults in power plants or transmission connections could lead to an electricity shortage.

The report presents a scenario based on ENTSO-E’s best estimate, whereby the risk of an electricity shortage is recognised in Finland and elsewhere in the Nordic countries, but the likelihood of a protracted electricity shortage is low. Electricity shortages are less likely if consumption can be reduced during challenging consumption peaks. In other words, the savings enacted across various sectors will improve the adequacy of electricity dramatically.

The report also presents an unfavourable scenario in which the restart of electricity production at Olkiluoto 3 and the maintenance of the Ringhals 4 nuclear power unit in Southern Sweden are both delayed for the entire winter. This scenario also envisages restrictions on production in France, Germany and Poland, and no electricity savings during consumption peaks. This chain of events would increase the likelihood of an electricity shortage, particularly in Finland, France and Poland. The uncertainties in the prevailing situation emphasise the importance of continuing to save electricity and ensuring reliable domestic production and imports to safeguard the adequacy of electricity in Finland.

Further information:

Tuomas Rauhala, Senior Vice President, Fingrid Oyj, tel. +358 40 506 4695

Further information about electricity shortages on Fingrid’s website >

Winter Outlook 2022–2023 on ENTSO-E’s website >

Description of the methodology used in the report in a Fingrid Magazine infographic 11/2022 >

Description of the methodology used in the report in Fingrid Magazine 4/2021 >

 

Fact box: ENTSO-E’s report considers the risks affecting the adequacy of electricity

ENTSO-E’s report describes a simulation of Europe’s electricity markets, including electricity production and consumption in each country and transmission between regions on an hourly level. The report considers the impact of the weather on electricity consumption and production based on the weather conditions in past years. This makes it possible to account for factors such as fluctuations in wind power output between different regions. To assess the risks related to the adequacy of electricity, the model also included unforeseen failures in power plants and transmission connections. Failures are modelled based on probabilities. For example, they may be based on the frequencies and durations of failures in transmission connections in recent years.

The analysis makes it possible to calculate the potential hours of electricity shortages in each region, when the market supply of electricity is not enough to cover consumption. The key indicators calculated to describe the adequacy of electricity in these hours are the loss of load expectation and expected energy not served. The expected values are calculated as averages of a combination of different weather years and failures; therefore, they paint a reliable picture of the expected situation.

The scenario based on the best estimate for Finland predicts a loss of load expectation of less than 0.2 hours, while the unfavourable scenario foresees a loss of load expectation of 11 hours. This means that Finland can expect electricity shortages averaging this number of hours in the winter. The adequacy of electricity fluctuates significantly in individual years due to weather conditions and failures.