Fingrid has updated its winter electricity adequacy estimate: The damage to the EstLink 2 connection weakens the adequacy of electricity on very cold and calm winter days

According to the updated estimate, the failure of the EstLink 2 transmission link between Estonia and Finland weakens the adequacy of electricity on very cold and windless winter days. In the event of scarcity situations, demand response is anticipated to safeguard the adequacy of electricity, and a shortage of electricity is not expected when domestic power plants and cross-border connections are operating normally. On a normal winter day, the failure has a smaller impact on the availability of electricity, and it is estimated that Finland will have sufficient supply of electricity.

According to the updated estimate, on an average winter day, enough electricity will be available when electricity production plants and cross-border connections are operating normally. The supply of electricity is sufficient, but the situation may become tighter more easily than previously expected if several power plant or cross-border connection failures occur simultaneously.

On a very cold and calm winter day, electricity supply is scarce. However, no shortages in electricity supply are expected, provided that there are no disturbances in cross-border connections or domestic production plants. The high price of electricity is expected to activate demand response, which is important to ensure the adequacy of electricity. If there are significant failures at power plants or in cross-border connections, or if weather conditions remain extremely challenging for a long period of time, the situation will become tight and intermittent power shortages are possible.

“In spite of the damage to EstLink 2, there is sufficient electricity available on a typical subzero winter day if the technology is working reliably. If the weather becomes unusually cold and there is no wind, demand response will play a key role in ensuring the adequacy of electricity,” says Tuomas Rauhala, Senior Vice President, Power System Operation at Fingrid.

Domestic power production capacity is estimated to be 13,600 MW on an average winter day, and 11,800 MW on a very cold and calm winter day, as set out in the estimate released in November. On a very cold and calm winter day, the availability of electricity limits the maximum power consumption, and for this reason the estimate of electricity consumption on a very cold and calm winter day has been reduced by 450 MW compared with the previous estimate. The damage to the EstLink 2 transmission link has been taken into account in import capacity, resulting in a 650 MW reduction in import capacity from Estonia.

Fingrid continuously assesses the adequacy of electricity and releases information if the situation changes.

More information

Unit Manager Mikko Kuivaniemi tel. +358 30 395 5188
E-mail addresses are firstname.lastname@fingrid.fi

Estlink transmission connections

There are two HVDC transmission links between Finland and Estonia: EstLink 1 and EstLink 2. EstLink 1 has a transmission capacity of 350 MW and EstLink 2 has 650 MW. EstLink 2 was damaged on Christmas Day, 25 December, and it is estimated that it will take several months to repair the connection. The repair schedule will be updated when more detailed assessments of the damage have been completed.

During 2024, Estlink connections transferred approximately 4.2 TWh of electricity. Most of the time — an almost 90% share of the hours of the year — electricity was exported from Finland to Estonia. During the rest of the time, electricity was imported from Estonia to Finland. For 400 hours, both connections were used for imports. In the winter season, electricity is typically imported from Estonia to Finland in situations where the Finnish demand for electricity is high, the supply is scarce and the price is higher than average. Such situations include cold winter days with little wind.