Aurora Line commissioning will help ensure an adequate supply of electricity over the coming winter
Fingrid estimates that sufficient electricity will be available over the coming winter, assuming normal operation of Finnish power plants and transmission lines. The Aurora Line transmission line between Finland and Northern Sweden will be completed at the end of the year, and will improve electricity availability in comparison to previous winters. However, Finland must still take further measures to ensure a sufficient supply of electricity in the longer term.
There should be enough electricity available in Finland over the coming winter. An adequate supply of electricity should be available even under the difficult circumstances that were modelled by Fingrid, that is, cold periods with no wind. In challenging conditions, the price of electricity is expected to stimulate demand response, which is essential to ensure adequacy s.
Fingrid estimates that electricity consumption could peak at around 15,000 megawatts on a very cold and calm winter’s day. At best, Finnish production could cover an estimated 11,700 megawatts of consumption on a cold and calm day such as this. The remaining 3,300 megawatts can be imported from Sweden and Estonia. During a cold period, electricity consumption could be even higher if the price of electricity remains low due to an abundance of wind power.
Good availability of domestic production and transmission links is vital
In order to ensure a sufficient supply of electricity, it is essential for domestic production capacity and transmission lines to be available. According to Fingrid's analysis, the electricity system can withstand a single major failure at a large-scale production unit or cross-border interconnector without compromising adequacy of supply.
The new Aurora Line transmission line between Finland and Northern Sweden will be completed at the turn of the year, and will increase import capacity from Northern Sweden by 700 megawatts. Although around 300 megawatts of combined heat and power production plants have been decommissioned compared to last year, the Aurora Line and an increase in wind power capacity will replace the lost capacity.
A great deal of flexible consumption has been added to the electricity system in recent years through, for example, electric boilers and customers with spot priced electricity contracts. Demand response significantly reduces the risk of electricity shortages, as flexible consumption offers are activated when prices are high.
"In the long run, the significant boost provided by the Aurora Line will only be temporary. The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment is preparing a non-fossil flexibility support scheme to help ensure an adequate supply of electricity, and it’s vital that this is swiftly implemented so as not to jeopardise electricity availability in the beginning of 2030s,” says Tuomas Rauhala, Senior Vice President, Power System Operations.
Fingrid models electricity availability in various scenarios
Fingrid's assessment of electricity adequacy is based on detailed hourly modelling of the power balance of the electricity system throughout the winter, that is, the balance between production and consumption in various weather conditions and in the event of different types of failures. For example, by taking into account a period of very cold and non-windy weather which, although unlikely, may occur about once every ten years.
Further information
Mikko Kuivaniemi, Unit Manager, Fingrid Oyj, tel. +358 (0)30 395 5188.
Email addresses are in the form firstname.lastname@fingrid.fi