Reliable domestic production and imports are needed to ensure sufficient electricity supply in the coming winter

According to Fingrid's assessment, there will be no shortage of electricity when the electricity system is operating reliably, but the likelihood of short-term shortages increases in case disturbances occur.

In winter 2024-25, electricity adequacy in Finland appears stable, assuming that major production plant failures are avoided and cross-border connections function normally. Fingrid's assessment shows that even in the difficult situations modelled, i.e. during windless and cold periods, sufficient electricity will be available in Finland.

Fingrid estimates that electricity consumption on a very cold and calm winter day will rise to around 15,000 MW. On such a frosty day, domestic production can at best cover an estimated 12,000 MW of consumption. The remaining 3,000 MW can be imported from Sweden and Estonia. In a cold frost period, electricity consumption can also rise above this level if wind power is abundant.

Good availability of domestic production is important

The availability of domestic production capacity is essential for electricity adequacy. According to Fingrid's analysis, the power system can cope with a single major fault at a large production plant or at a cross-border connection, but if several faults occur simultaneously, the power situation will become much tighter.

The electricity system has become increasingly dependent on the weather. In terms of electricity adequacy, this is reflected in an increased likelihood of short-term power shortages, which further emphasises the role of demand response. In practice, this means that there will be fluctuations in electricity prices, as already seen, which are the main driver of demand response in the electricity markets.

"The overall state of electricity adequacy is stable, but in the event of a disturbance, there is little extra flexibility available. Recent winters have shown that the price does drive a lot of flexibility in consumption, but a cost-effective targeted capacity mechanism is needed in Finland quickly to support electricity adequacy and also to mitigate possible extreme price spikes," says Tuomas Rauhala, Senior Vice President, Power System Operations.

Fingrid models electricity adequacy in different scenarios

Fingrid's electricity adequacy assessment is based on detailed hourly modelling of the power balance throughout the winter, i.e. the balance between production and consumption in different weather conditions and in the event of various failures. For example, in terms of weather, the adequacy is assessed in the most difficult situation, i.e. during very cold and windless periods. Such weather is very unlikely and is estimated to occur only once every ten years.

More information

Unit Manager Mikko Kuivaniemi tel. +358 30 395 5188
E-mail addresses are firstname.lastname@fingrid.fi