Fingrid opens the discussion on the adequacy of electricity in the latter half of this decade

The energy transition is an enormous opportunity for Finland. Clean Finnish electricity production is expanding, and several new industrial investments utilising clean energy are planned in Finland. Fingrid is preparing for the comprehensive transition of the electricity production structure. To this end, Fingrid has studied trends in the adequacy of electricity in the latter half of the 2020s. Working with Afry has identified potential ways of improving the adequacy of electricity and the security of the energy supply.

Transmission system operators have a legislative task to analyse the Fingrid expects electricity consumption to increase dramatically as industry and heating are electrified. Wind and solar power are growing rapidly, and weather-dependent renewable production accounts for an increasing proportion of electricity production.

If electricity consumption and production develop according to Fingrid’s forecast, a substantial amount of flexibility will be required to balance electricity demand and supply in the future and promote the adequacy of electricity. In practice, this means new flexible electricity consumption, large-scale energy storage solutions and/or non-weather-dependent electricity production. If these investments are not realized, new measures are needed.

“In general, the outlook for the electricity adequacy in Finland in the 2020s is good. This is a result of new investments made in clean Finnish electricity production as well as planned investments into utilization of clean electricity. However, our analysis reveals some uncertainties around the assumptions underpinning the trends in the supply and demand. These uncertainties could significantly impact the adequacy of electricity, especially in the latter half of this decade,” says Tuomas Rauhala, Senior Vice President, Power System Operations at Fingrid.

“This study aimed to raise awareness of our findings among stakeholders in good time and spark discussion of the appropriate ways of preparing for future challenges in the adequacy of electricity in light of the uncertainties,” Rauhala says.

Key findings of Fingrid’s analysis of trends in the adequacy of electricity in the latter half of the 2020s:

• Significantly more flexibility will be needed to make efficient use of the potential of the new cheap wind and solar production capacity in Finland.
• Electrifying industry, hydrogen production and electrified district heating production have significant potential to be flexible in their electricity consumption patterns. Demand side response benefits society and consumers, who can avoid price spikes and take advantage of periods of low prices.
• If demand side response does not realize to the estimated extent, long-term disturbances in important power plants occur, or the availability of electricity from neighbouring countries is weakened, Finland could potentially face challenges in the adequacy of electricity. Challenges in the adequacy of electricity would most likely occur if freezing temperatures and low wind conditions were combined for a prolonged period, such as several days or weeks. At a maximum, large-scale demand side response would be needed for several consecutive days or even weeks.
  
  

Fingrid commissioned Observer members from the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment in Finland, Energy Authority and National Emergency Supply Agency helped to steer the study.

The final report on the Afry’s study is published. Fingrid is conducting a stakeholder consultation to discover stakeholders’ views on the study and its conclusions. The consultation will run until 18 August, after which Fingrid will publish a summary of the responses.

We will present the study from 9 am to 11 am on 13 June 2023 in Finnish (Teams link). No registration is required to attend remotely. The presentation will be recorded.

Further information:

Tuomas Rauhala, Fingrid Oyj, Power System Operation

Laura Ihamäki, Fingrid Oyj, Afry’s study & stakeholder consultation

Jussi Närhi, Fingrid Oyj, Fingrid’s analysis of the adequacy of electricity

Downloads:

Assessment of future capacity solutions.pdf
Annex 1 - Details on Fingrid's Forecast and adequacy analysis methodology.pdf
Stakeholder consultation on the AFRY report on electricity adequacy solutions.pdf