Critical power situation in the years ahead

Electricity supply in the Nordel region will be critical in the coming years. Under cold winter conditions the power balance is expected to come under strain, even with high availability in the power generation and transmission system. Such a situation is likely to occur approximately once every ten years.

That is the conclusion reached by Nordel, the organisation for co-operation between the transmission system operators (TSOs) in the five Nordic countries, at Nordel’s Annual Meeting. Nordel has drawn up a report forecasting power and energy balances over the next three years. The new balances were presented and discussed at Nordel’s Annual Meeting at Rømø in Denmark on 13 June.

A steadily growing consumption of electricity while generation capacity is not increasing, is a major reason why electricity could be in short supply in the Nordic countries. There is a probability of power problems occurring in the Nordic region approximately once every ten years. An overall review of the situation shows that the Nordic power system is becoming increasingly dependent on strong interconnections with Europe in order to tackle such a situation. The power deficit areas Norway, Sweden and Finland are especially dependent on imports from neighbouring areas to achieve satisfactory reliability. The possibility cannot be excluded of the TSOs going into the market with special measures in certain areas, for example encouraging energy-saving in extremely cold conditions.

Energy balances are also under strain. In a year with extremely low precipitation, hydropower production in the Nordic countries may fall by almost 40 TWh in relation to normal production years. An extremely dry year - or two dry years in succession - will mean a very serious imbalance. The possibility cannot be disregarded of such a situation requiring various forms of rationing or measures being taken in the power market. Under certain conditions and with this three-year perspective, Nordel believes that the Nordic power system has sufficient capacity and import potential to tackle a single dry year. However, that will require the power market to function as it should, also between the Nordic countries and Europe. This assumes that rules regarding CO2 emission do not prevent the exchanges between the countries. In a shortage situation, the Nordel region will be ever more dependent on power from countries outside Nordel.

At the Annual Meeting, Georg Styrbro, Managing Director of the Danish TSO Eltra, was elected as new chairman for the next two years. He will take over after Statnett’s President and CEO, Odd Håkon Hoelsæter, who has been chairman of Nordel for the past three years. The newly elected Vice-Chairman is Director General Jan Magnusson of Svenska Kraftnät. The changeover will take place in conformity with Nordel’s by-laws.

Further information may be obtained from the following members of Nordel’s Board:

Nordel’s President, Managing Director Georg Styrbro, ELTRA +45 76 22 40 00
Denmark: Managing Director Georg Styrbro, ELTRA +45 76 22 40 00
Managing. Director Bent Agerholm, Elkraft System a.m.b.a +45 44 87 32 00
Finland: President and CEO Timo Toivonen, Fingrid Oyj +358 30 395 5250
Iceland: Managing Director Fredrik Sophusson, Landsvirkjun +354 515 9000
Norway: President and CEO Odd Håkon Hoelsæter, Statnett +47 22 52 70 70
Sweden: Director General Jan Magnusson, Svenska Kraftnät +46 8 739 78 03