Electricity is expected to be sufficient this winter, provided that domestic production and transmission lines operate reliably
Finland’s electricity adequacy outlook for the coming winter is stable, provided that major failures at production facilities are avoided and the transmission lines from Sweden and Estonia operate normally. According to Fingrid’s assessment, sufficient electricity will be available even on cold, calm winter days. In the most challenging situations, high electricity prices are expected to activate demand response, thereby safeguarding adequacy of supply.
Fingrid estimates that electricity consumption will rise to approximately 15,200 megawatts on an extremely cold and calm winter day. On such a freezing day, domestic production is estimated to cover 12,000 megawatts of consumption. The remaining 3,200 megawatts can be imported from Sweden and Estonia, provided that the transmission lines operate normally. If electricity is readily available, consumption during a cold period may exceed this level, for example due to increased use of electric boilers. Inflexible electricity consumption is estimated to increase by approximately 200 megawatts compared with last winter.
Estimated distribution of electricity generation capacity by generation type
Good availability of domestic production and transmission lines is vital
In order to ensure a sufficient supply of electricity, it is essential for domestic production capacity and transmission lines to be available. According to Fingrid’s analysis, the electricity system can withstand a single major failure at a large-scale production unit or cross-border interconnector without compromising adequacy of supply.
From the perspective of electricity adequacy, the coming winter is expected to be similar to last year. Wind and solar power generation capacity has increased by 800 megawatts. In addition, Fortum has announced that the Meri-Pori coal-fired power plant will temporarily return to the market in early 2027, increasing weather-independent production capacity.
“During last winter’s exceptionally cold and calm period, electricity was sufficient thanks to the reliable operation of power plants and transmission lines, as well as demand response. The electricity adequacy situation is not expected to change materially in the coming winter. However, towards the end of the 2020s, the adequacy of electricity capacity is at risk of deteriorating significantly as electricity consumption increases. Finland must therefore urgently promote investments in new flexible electricity generation capacity,” says Mikko Kuivaniemi, Head of Power System Reserves unit.
Fingrid models electricity adequacy in various scenarios
Fingrid’s assessment of electricity adequacy is based on detailed, Europe-wide, hourly modelling covering the entire winter. The modelling examines the power balance of the electricity system, that is, the balance between production and consumption, under various weather conditions and in the event of different types of failures. With regard to weather, for example, the modelling takes into account an extremely cold and calm period that occurs approximately once every ten years.
Further information
Mikko Kuivaniemi, Head of Unit, Fingrid Oyj, tel. +358 30 395 5188
Email addresses are in the format firstname.lastname@fingrid.fi